Virgil
Posts:
1,119
Registered:
12/6/04
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Re: Conditional Probability Question
Posted:
Sep 27, 2001 4:04 PM
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In article <20010927013016.25553.00000707@mb-cr.aol.com>,
mensanator@aol.com (Mensanator) wrote:
> No. In the Monty Hall problem the "actual" probability that you initially
> picked the correct door is 1/3. This probability does _not_ change when
> your knowledge increases. The fact that the probability does not change is
> the reason the increased knowledge can be put to use. Suppose we remove the
> knowledge. You pick a door. Without opening anything (and thus supplying
> no additional knowledge), Monty offers to trade you your door for BOTH the
> other two doors. Obviously, you increase your chances of winning if you
> take the trade. Again, the knowledge has no bearing on the probability.
This is not the Monty Hall problem as it is usually presented, and
does not represent the point I was trying to make.
Given 100 parts with 99 good and 1 defective and no other knowledge,
what is the probability that the i'th part inspected is defective?
1/100 is what I would say.
If you are _given_ that the first i-1 parts inspected will be found
to be good, do you still wish to say that the probability of the
i'th part inspected is 1/100?
If so, I have a lovely bridge you might be interested in buying.
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