In article <email@example.com>, firstname.lastname@example.org (Mensanator) wrote:
> No. In the Monty Hall problem the "actual" probability that you initially > picked the correct door is 1/3. This probability does _not_ change when > your knowledge increases. The fact that the probability does not change is > the reason the increased knowledge can be put to use. Suppose we remove the > knowledge. You pick a door. Without opening anything (and thus supplying > no additional knowledge), Monty offers to trade you your door for BOTH the > other two doors. Obviously, you increase your chances of winning if you > take the trade. Again, the knowledge has no bearing on the probability.
This is not the Monty Hall problem as it is usually presented, and does not represent the point I was trying to make.
Given 100 parts with 99 good and 1 defective and no other knowledge, what is the probability that the i'th part inspected is defective? 1/100 is what I would say.
If you are _given_ that the first i-1 parts inspected will be found to be good, do you still wish to say that the probability of the i'th part inspected is 1/100?
If so, I have a lovely bridge you might be interested in buying.