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Topic: Conditional Probability Question
Replies: 49   Last Post: Oct 18, 2001 2:34 PM

 Messages: [ Previous | Next ]
 Virgil Posts: 1,119 Registered: 12/6/04
Re: Conditional Probability Question
Posted: Sep 27, 2001 4:04 PM

In article <20010927013016.25553.00000707@mb-cr.aol.com>,
mensanator@aol.com (Mensanator) wrote:

> No. In the Monty Hall problem the "actual" probability that you initially
> picked the correct door is 1/3. This probability does _not_ change when
> your knowledge increases. The fact that the probability does not change is
> the reason the increased knowledge can be put to use. Suppose we remove the
> knowledge. You pick a door. Without opening anything (and thus supplying
> other two doors. Obviously, you increase your chances of winning if you
> take the trade. Again, the knowledge has no bearing on the probability.

This is not the Monty Hall problem as it is usually presented, and
does not represent the point I was trying to make.

Given 100 parts with 99 good and 1 defective and no other knowledge,
what is the probability that the i'th part inspected is defective?
1/100 is what I would say.

If you are _given_ that the first i-1 parts inspected will be found
to be good, do you still wish to say that the probability of the
i'th part inspected is 1/100?

If so, I have a lovely bridge you might be interested in buying.

Date Subject Author
9/25/01 Aaron Davies
9/25/01 Randy Poe
9/25/01 Aaron Davies
9/26/01 Kevin Foltinek
9/26/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Kevin Foltinek
9/27/01 Aaron Davies
9/27/01 mensanator
9/25/01 Steve Wright
9/25/01 Timothy E. Vaughan
9/26/01 Lionel Barnett
9/25/01 Virgil
9/25/01 Ray Vickson
9/25/01 mensanator
9/26/01 Virgil
9/26/01 mensanator
9/26/01 Virgil
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 The Scarlet Manuka
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Virgil
9/27/01 Aaron Davies
9/28/01 mensanator
9/26/01 Ray Vickson
9/26/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Virgil
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Virgil
9/28/01 mensanator
9/28/01 Virgil
9/28/01 David Lloyd-Jones
9/28/01 mensanator
9/29/01 David Lloyd-Jones
9/29/01 mensanator
9/29/01 David Lloyd-Jones
9/29/01 mensanator
9/29/01 David Lloyd-Jones
9/29/01 mensanator
9/29/01 Virgil
9/29/01 mensanator
9/29/01 Lynn Kurtz
9/27/01 Aaron Davies
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Virgil
10/17/01 Mike Mccarty Sr
10/18/01 Virgil
9/27/01 Randy Poe
9/25/01 mensanator