Drexel dragonThe Math ForumDonate to the Math Forum



Search All of the Math Forum:

Views expressed in these public forums are not endorsed by Drexel University or The Math Forum.


Math Forum » Discussions » sci.math.* » sci.math.independent

Topic: Conditional Probability Question
Replies: 49   Last Post: Oct 18, 2001 2:34 PM

Advanced Search

Back to Topic List Back to Topic List Jump to Tree View Jump to Tree View   Messages: [ Previous | Next ]
David Lloyd-Jones

Posts: 68
Registered: 12/8/04
Re: Conditional Probability Question
Posted: Sep 28, 2001 6:17 AM
  Click to see the message monospaced in plain text Plain Text   Click to reply to this topic Reply



"Mensanator" <mensanator@aol.com> wrote
> But I still say
> "What is the probability that the i-th part you examine will be

defective?"
> means to calculate the probability before inspection begins.

Fine. Before the inspection begins it is clear that the probabilities for
each inspection will change as the process goes along. Thus for i=1 the
chance will be 1/100, for i=2 it will be 1/99 and in general it will be
1/(101-i).

> If playing Russian Roulette, we can ask
> "What is the probability that the i-th player will shoot himself?"


As I understand it, people playing Russian Roulette spin the cylinder after
each try -- the equivalent of throwing good parts back into the pile so that
you've always inspecting a random one out of a hundred.

In inspecting parts, by contrast, the process has the purpose of identifying
bad parts and separating them from good parts, so the odds necessarily
change on the basis of knowledge -- and this process is understood
beforehand.

This is, contrary to what somebody here said, a good homologue of the Monty
Hall problem -- so the stupid teacher in this class can at least take some
comfort from the fact that IQ champion Marilyn von Savant got that one very
publicly wrong for endless tiresome months.

-dlj.








Date Subject Author
9/25/01
Read Conditional Probability Question
Aaron Davies
9/25/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Wade Ramey
9/25/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Randy Poe
9/25/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Aaron Davies
9/26/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Kevin Foltinek
9/26/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Kevin Foltinek
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Aaron Davies
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/25/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Steve Wright
9/25/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Timothy E. Vaughan
9/26/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Lionel Barnett
9/25/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
9/25/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Ray Vickson
9/25/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/26/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
9/26/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/26/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
The Scarlet Manuka
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Aaron Davies
9/28/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/26/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Ray Vickson
9/26/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
9/28/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/28/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
9/28/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
David Lloyd-Jones
9/28/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/29/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
David Lloyd-Jones
9/29/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/29/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
David Lloyd-Jones
9/29/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/29/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
David Lloyd-Jones
9/29/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/29/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
9/29/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/29/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Lynn Kurtz
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Aaron Davies
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
10/17/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Mike Mccarty Sr
10/18/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Virgil
9/27/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
Randy Poe
9/25/01
Read Re: Conditional Probability Question
mensanator

Point your RSS reader here for a feed of the latest messages in this topic.

[Privacy Policy] [Terms of Use]

© Drexel University 1994-2014. All Rights Reserved.
The Math Forum is a research and educational enterprise of the Drexel University School of Education.