Search All of the Math Forum:

Views expressed in these public forums are not endorsed by NCTM or The Math Forum.

Notice: We are no longer accepting new posts, but the forums will continue to be readable.

Topic: Conditional Probability Question
Replies: 49   Last Post: Oct 18, 2001 2:34 PM

 Messages: [ Previous | Next ]
 David Lloyd-Jones Posts: 68 Registered: 12/8/04
Re: Conditional Probability Question
Posted: Sep 29, 2001 5:49 AM

"Mensanator" <mensanator@aol.com> wrote
>
> I am not disputing that the probability changes at each i. What I am
> disputing is whether that is the answer to the stated question.
> If you performed the inspection on 10,000 buckets of parts (each with
> exactly 1 defective part) you will find the defective part on the 13th
> inspection approximately 100 times. You will find the defective part
> on the 37th inspection approximately 100 times. You will find the
> defective part on the 63rd inspection approximately 100 times. In fact,
> for all values of i you will find the defective part approximately 100

times.

Fair enough.

> How do you reconcile this with the fact that at inspection 13 the
probability
> of success is 1/88 whereas at inspection 37 the probability of success is
> 1/64?

Nothing to reconcile. different questions have different answers.

> Assuming he meant "determine the probabilty before beginning the
inspections"
> then he is absolutely correct. The probability is 1/100 for all i.

A degenerate version of 1/(101-i).

Cheers,

-dlj.

Date Subject Author
9/25/01 Aaron Davies
9/25/01 Randy Poe
9/25/01 Aaron Davies
9/26/01 Kevin Foltinek
9/26/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Kevin Foltinek
9/27/01 Aaron Davies
9/27/01 mensanator
9/25/01 Steve Wright
9/25/01 Timothy E. Vaughan
9/26/01 Lionel Barnett
9/25/01 Virgil
9/25/01 Ray Vickson
9/25/01 mensanator
9/26/01 Virgil
9/26/01 mensanator
9/26/01 Virgil
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 The Scarlet Manuka
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Virgil
9/27/01 Aaron Davies
9/28/01 mensanator
9/26/01 Ray Vickson
9/26/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Virgil
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Virgil
9/28/01 mensanator
9/28/01 Virgil
9/28/01 David Lloyd-Jones
9/28/01 mensanator
9/29/01 David Lloyd-Jones
9/29/01 mensanator
9/29/01 David Lloyd-Jones
9/29/01 mensanator
9/29/01 David Lloyd-Jones
9/29/01 mensanator
9/29/01 Virgil
9/29/01 mensanator
9/29/01 Lynn Kurtz
9/27/01 Aaron Davies
9/27/01 mensanator
9/27/01 Virgil
10/17/01 Mike Mccarty Sr
10/18/01 Virgil
9/27/01 Randy Poe
9/25/01 mensanator