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Re: Conditional Probability Question
Posted:
Sep 29, 2001 5:49 AM
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"Mensanator" <mensanator@aol.com> wrote
>
> I am not disputing that the probability changes at each i. What I am
> disputing is whether that is the answer to the stated question.
> If you performed the inspection on 10,000 buckets of parts (each with
> exactly 1 defective part) you will find the defective part on the 13th
> inspection approximately 100 times. You will find the defective part
> on the 37th inspection approximately 100 times. You will find the
> defective part on the 63rd inspection approximately 100 times. In fact,
> for all values of i you will find the defective part approximately 100
times.
Fair enough.
> How do you reconcile this with the fact that at inspection 13 the
probability
> of success is 1/88 whereas at inspection 37 the probability of success is
> 1/64?
Nothing to reconcile. different questions have different answers.
> Assuming he meant "determine the probabilty before beginning the
inspections"
> then he is absolutely correct. The probability is 1/100 for all i.
A degenerate version of 1/(101-i).
Cheers,
-dlj.
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