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Topic: Baseball Probability Puzzle
Replies: 1   Last Post: Jun 13, 1996 3:23 PM

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Paul Bernhardt

Posts: 4
Registered: 12/18/04
Re: Baseball Probability Puzzle
Posted: Jun 13, 1996 3:23 PM
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In article <31BEE912.73B6@kodak.com>, Paige Miller <paigem@kodak.com> wrote:

> Yes, but ties are possible!
> Baseball is not as simple as flipping biased coins or comparing

Bernoulli trials.
> Unless you are willing to make such extreme simplifying assumptions,
then we can't
> answer your question based upon the information you provide.

Ties are not possible in baseball. Games tied at the end of 9 innings of
play go on to extra innings until one team prevails.

With that said, I agree that baseball is not as simple as flipping a coin.
I'd say the pitcher's winning percentages, home and road records, injury
status, etc. are all important. If this kind of problem were so easily
solved, we all be making a killing betting on the outcomes because of our
superior knowledge.

Paul C. Bernhardt, M.S. in Psychology, University of Utah
PhD graduate student in Educational Psychology

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