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Topic: New project: certification in statistics
Replies: 17   Last Post: Nov 20, 2000 3:14 PM

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Jerry Dallal

Posts: 27
Registered: 12/13/04
Re: manual recount - of punched ballots
Posted: Nov 13, 2000 1:05 PM
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Rich Ulrich wrote:

> The last "official" vote-tally I heard was 288 (on CBS, from <?>),
> Bush's lead down from 325 (reported by AP). Here are some future
> estimates I consider reasonable: Gore gains 1500 from manual counts
> in Palm Beach County, and Bush gains 900 in Duvall County and another
> 300 from absentee ballots, and that puts the total near to ZERO -- at
> competition to the New Mexico margin which I last heard as 17.

Be careful about the absentee ballots. Florida's electorate has
been skewing Democratic over the last decade. Also, there are two
large groups among the absentees--people voting from Israel, who
tend to favor the Democrats, and the military. It has been assumed
the military tend to vote Republican. Not surprising, especially
for the last election which pitted a Democrat with no service
against a Republican war hero. This time around, it's a Democrat
who served in Vietnam against a Republican whose military service
has not been viewed as favorably in some quarters.

> Someone reported that MA (Massachusetts) quit using punched cards
> after a disputed election.

That was me. It was the congressional race that eventually led to
the election of William Delahunt after the judges hand counted the
disputed votes themselves and reversed the initial outcome.

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