Search All of the Math Forum:

Views expressed in these public forums are not endorsed by NCTM or The Math Forum.

Notice: We are no longer accepting new posts, but the forums will continue to be readable.

Topic: interesting probability problem
Replies: 9   Last Post: Oct 17, 2007 3:20 AM

 Messages: [ Previous | Next ]
 Andersen Posts: 130 Registered: 5/22/05
Re: interesting probability problem
Posted: Oct 16, 2007 11:03 AM

Gus Gassmann wrote:
> Two quick observations. First, the solution to b) must be wrong,
> because
> the expression is > 1 if p is > 1/3. Second, the states of nature A
> and C(A)
> are very strangely chosen, as there is a lot of middle ground. C(A)
> should be
> "There exists a cow that is not white". If you then try to apply
> Bayes' theorem,
> you find that P(C|comp(A)) is no longer 1/2.

You are right, it should be 2p/(1+p). About the middle ground, imagine
you are on a different planet :-)

Date Subject Author
10/16/07 Andersen
10/16/07 Gus Gassmann
10/16/07 Andersen
10/16/07 matt271829-news@yahoo.co.uk
10/16/07 Andersen
10/16/07 briggs@encompasserve.org
10/16/07 matt271829-news@yahoo.co.uk
10/17/07 Andersen
10/17/07 Andersen
10/16/07 Robert Israel