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Topic: interesting probability problem
Replies: 9   Last Post: Oct 17, 2007 3:20 AM

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Andersen

Posts: 130
Registered: 5/22/05
Re: interesting probability problem
Posted: Oct 16, 2007 11:03 AM
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Gus Gassmann wrote:
> Two quick observations. First, the solution to b) must be wrong,
> because
> the expression is > 1 if p is > 1/3. Second, the states of nature A
> and C(A)
> are very strangely chosen, as there is a lot of middle ground. C(A)
> should be
> "There exists a cow that is not white". If you then try to apply
> Bayes' theorem,
> you find that P(C|comp(A)) is no longer 1/2.


You are right, it should be 2p/(1+p). About the middle ground, imagine
you are on a different planet :-)




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