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Topic: Am I punctual?
Replies: 12   Last Post: Jul 27, 2010 10:50 PM

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hagman

Posts: 1,923
Registered: 1/29/05
Re: Am I punctual?
Posted: May 27, 2010 1:17 PM
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On 27 Mai, 17:13, musicgold <major_y...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Thanks folks.
>
> Let just forget about this whole punctual or not situation. I am interested in learning how I can apply my statistics knowledge in everyday situations. Let us just consider a hypothetical situation.
>
> Everyday, I travel from point A to point B.  It is my target is to keep the travel time at one hour.  I feel that since the whole process involves many independent activities (variables)- walk, bus, train, elevators - there is bound to be some randomness or noise in my travel time.  I have a sample of 200 days.
>
> I wish to know whether it actually takes me one hour to travel from A to B. How should I go about it?
>
> Also, is there any website where I can read on the application of math/stats in day-to-day situations?
>
> Thanks,
>
> MG.


For this problem, you would try to determine mean and variance from
your sample data (assuming a nice normal distribution).
If you obtain, say mu = 58 minutes and sigma = 2 minutes and you
want to be at B at 08:00 am with a 3 sigma confidence, you must
start at 06:54. If you are satisfied with a 50% chance, starting at
07:02 suffices.
If the distribution does not look very normal (or even if it does) you
may also simply take the corresponting percentile of your sample data
to estimate your chacne of arriving in time.



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