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Topic: What are cause and effect?
Replies: 1,135   Last Post: Dec 13, 2010 8:20 PM

 Messages: [ Previous | Next ]
 Tron Posts: 118 Registered: 12/20/05
Re: What are cause and effect?
Posted: Nov 10, 2010 11:14 PM

"Acme Prognostics" <LFine.ap@ZAPTHISgmail.com> skrev i melding
>
> "Tronscend" <tronfuru@frizurf.no> wrote:

>>"Acme Prognostics" <LFine.ap@ZAPTHISgmail.com> skrev i melding
>>> "Tronscend" <tronfuru@frizurf.no> wrote:
>>>>"Acme Prognostics" <LFine.ap@ZAPTHISgmail.com> skrev i melding
>>
>>Hi there,

>
> Hey.
>

>>> Can't comment on 'proof' of syllogisms. I agree probability does
>>> not explain why, etc., re: some next event as defined earlier.

>>
>>Unleashing my previous attempt to explain entailment by rewriting
>>it as inclusion in concept spheres to produce a violation of the
>>Law of Contradiction when denying to accept the conclusion as
>>what the premises entail, I'd say that induction/probability
>>cannot present a major premise that is a universal affirmative,
>>but merely set of all instances that only approaches 100 %; with
>>such a non-all-inclusive concept sphere, denying to accept the
>>conclusion as what the premises entail does not automatically
>>produce a violation of the Law of Contradiction.

>
> The problem def can specify a set of possible outcomes which is a
> universal. The P number is a theory number and can be universal.
> I think what you're saying is that single outcomes can't
> contradict these, which is true.
>
> All flips are either heads or tails.
> The P of heads is .5
> This flip is tails.
>
> Altogether, so far, I think we've differentiated between: 1)
> problem definition, 2) P calculation, 3) single events, and 4)
> P(rw) approaching P(t) in high N trials, and 5) transition to RW.
>

>>> arguments about Hume on usenet. So far, none are simple,
>>
>>It is a rather specialist discussion (amonst historians of
>>philosophy. Yeah, well, OK, some of his arguments are still not
>>refuted, e.g. Humes Guillotine). OTOH, a lot of britishers have
>>read Hume and think he is the bee's knees, etc., and he has
>>spawned a long tradition (Mill, etc.) that has firmly entrenched
>>the "commonsense" strain into Anglo philosophy; which then gained
>>world wide influence under Victoria Rx. It's like the switch
>>point of railroads; trains sent off on a sidetrack 200 years ago
>>will struggle to achieve certain destinations.

>
> Agree about the trains. The main problem, to me, is to derail the
> trains that go where people "ought not" to go. The earlier in
> the trip, the easier. By "ought not" I mean: If a movie theatre
> showed a travelogue with sound, most patrons would be crying,
> screaming in terror, throwing up, gnashing teeth, renting
> clothes, etc. But there's always those few who love it. Getting
> less few these days.
>
> Your route makes me wonder what would be an example of
> a route and destination that is nice, but far from the The
> Hume-British-Mill-Anglo-Victoria-commonsense route.
>

>>> "Reliability:" a probability to overcome the cost of being wrong.
>>
>>Hmmm...
>>A) There is a cost of being wrong.
>>2) This cost can be "overcome" (How? By A) incurring it, or by B)
>>not incurring it?) 3) Reliability is the probability of 2A = ....
>>that we are able to cover the cost...? I suspect not ...
>>4) Reliability is the probability of 2B = that we are able to
>>avoid the cost by not being wrong. Right?

>
> If the cost is very big, yes avoid in 1,000 lifetimes. Otherwise
> no need to avoid. If we make 15% return on 9 out of 10 decisions,
> then we have overcome the cost of being wrong. The probability of
> killing a child X the cost of killing a child is less than the
> probability of driving to/from the store safely X the benefit of
> eating a candy bar. In US law, "ordinary and prudent."
>
> The cost of being wrong about the univ. law of gravitation is
> very high, but the P is so low that the product is much less than
> the P of being right X the cost of, e.g., astronaut's lives.
>
> In a practical sense, it would be foolish for ordinary folks to
> argue about "settled science" such as gravitation. But it
> wouldn't be so foolish for credentialed and *employed* scientific
> researchers investigating it in the 9th dimension.
>
> But, just like with coin-flips, the above often doesn't hold when
> considering single events. E.g., you wouldn't put all your
> retirement eggs in one basket even though it calculates the
> highest return.
>

>>> science" (peer review, etc.) But for it to work, the requirement
>>> can't be so high as to cover trivial possibilities. Otherwise,

>>
>>What would be trivial possibilities in this scenario?
>>Brains in vats, constant instant destruction and recreation of
>>the Universe, universal scepticism etc.?

>
> Yes. But some spec-sci writers think that everything you can
> imagine exists somewhere, and everything you can't. I subscribe
> to that, not that that matters. It's unfalsifiable and makes me
> feel good.
>

>>Or "why not investigate yet another Elvis sighting? Science doesn't know
>>until it has
>>examined every case"?

>
> No, that's a cost-benefit decision. The probability of finding
> Elvis X the benefit of doing so is way less than the probability
> of not finding him X the cost of investigating. Science doesn't
> know anything for sure anyway. It just takes its best shot.
>
> Most decisions in science are cost-benefit. There are cute
> exceptions: It makes no sense to send a starship to Alpha Centuri
> now. The ship we build in 100 years would just pass it on the
> way. So there's some overall organizing required too.
>

>>> a sweeping universal like "There is no justification for
>>> induction" is easy to defend. I doubt that's what Hume said or

>
>>He (and others before him) merely said that induction does not
>>have the same justification as deduction.

>
> I think any definitional philosopher would agree with that. Well,
> I do. Thanks for clearing up this induction business about Hume.
>

>>It's like saying
>>sailboats aren't moved by the same forces as those which propel a
>>car. Both are still means of transport; just don't fill your boat
>>with gasoline.

>
> That's equally agreeable.
>

>>> In a probability class (theory) the P of heads in a coin-flip is
>>> 5. In a coin-testing lab it's .5002183 (or whatever). To an
>>> all-knowing god it's either 1 or 0. To someone with a two-headed
>>> coin, it's 1.

>>
>>So, what part of "random" changes with our knowing conditions?
>>IOW, do we diff. between something wich is truly random,
>>and that wich apperas random out of our ignorance?

>
> Dorayme answered that! <g> True random v. pseudo random. It's his
> one piece of information in the thread! (Besides "entailment" for
> everyone who didn't know about that. <g>)
>
> One is both the same in our POV. We treat them the same except
> when discussing Hume, which practitioners don't do very often.
>

>>(Ontological randomness vs. epistemological randomness?)
>
> Things that exist being random v. our knowledge of things
> that exist being random? If so, seems the same distinction to me.
>

>>Is a random event still random if we can describe it in detail
>>and predict the outcome?

>
> No. Any ability to predict is non-random by definition. (within
> a defined range, within a set of possible results).
>
> Randomness also depends on the problem definition. Suppose
> you have a six-sided die with two 6's and no 4. It is random
> if the problem says two 6's and no 4. If the prob def says it's
> a fair die with sides 1-6, but it actually has two 6's and no 4,
> then it's non-random.
>

>>Isn't random = "not influenced by the past"?
>
> I don't think so. There could be a perfect random number
> generator on Antares 23, and they could know how it works but it
> still produces random numbers.
>

>>Or am I confusing randomness with indeterminacy?
>
> I think you are better qualifed to answer that. As far as I know,
> randomness is "unpredictable next events among a set of
> possible events" whereas determinacy is "not one thing in the
> universe escapes certainty."
>

>>>>I was otherwise referring to the holy grail of Olde Science,
>>>>namely apodeixis ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apodicticity ).

>>>
>>> "Propositions are demonstrable... necessarily or self-evidently
>>> the case...referring to logical certainty."
>>>
>>> How is that different from "axiom?" The only repetitive classical
>>> definition of "axiom" I could find was "Propositions that nearly
>>> all students will accept without evidence." None from AA though.

>>
>>I think "axiom" is from Euclid et al.
>>Good one here (Etymology, Hitory):
>>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom
>>
>>Apodicticity is what logically certain propositions have:
>>they are infallible. Axioms needn't be infallible,
>>merely self-evident or generally accepted (e.g. by common
>>definition, convention).
>>One such is the convention on math that (a x 0 = 0) and (a x 1
>>= a) (?), which, AFAIK, is not proven or anything, and which could
>>possibly be otherwise.
>>Yet they are axioms.

>
> I think an "axiom" in math can also be anything one makes up,
> so that it is only the consistency of the theory that "proves"
> the axiom. However that's properly described, I think it's what
> completely removes a math theory from real-world, which I'm told
> is great for math.
>
> So while most debaters still use the classical definition of
> "axiom," it seems there is an opportunity for confusion.

Date Subject Author
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9/24/10 extropy1@hotmail.com
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10/7/10 Acme Prognostics
10/4/10 robert brent
10/4/10 Zinnic
10/4/10 dorayme
10/6/10 Acme Prognostics
10/6/10 dorayme
10/7/10 Acme Prognostics
10/7/10 dorayme
10/7/10 David Bernier
10/7/10 dorayme
10/8/10 David Bernier
10/8/10 dorayme
10/8/10 David Bernier
10/8/10 dorayme
10/7/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/8/10 Olrik
10/8/10 Angelo Campanella
10/8/10 Tron
10/8/10 dorayme
10/8/10 huge
10/9/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/9/10 Virgil
10/9/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/9/10 Virgil
10/9/10 dorayme
10/9/10 huge
10/10/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/10/10 huge
10/10/10 Zinnic
10/10/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/10/10 huge
10/10/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/10/10 huge
10/11/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/11/10 huge
10/12/10 Tron
10/12/10 dorayme
10/12/10 huge
10/12/10 huge
10/12/10 Tron
10/12/10 huge
10/10/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/10/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/10/10 huge
10/11/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/11/10 huge
10/11/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/12/10 huge
10/12/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/12/10 huge
10/9/10 Acme Prognostics
10/9/10 dorayme
10/9/10 DanielSan
10/9/10 Acme Prognostics
10/9/10 dorayme
10/10/10 Acme Prognostics
10/10/10 dorayme
10/11/10 robert brent
10/12/10 dorayme
10/12/10 huge
10/12/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/12/10 Tron
10/12/10 robert brent
10/12/10 huge
10/13/10 Acme Prognostics
10/13/10 Zinnic
10/13/10 dorayme
10/13/10 robert brent
10/13/10 dorayme
10/13/10 huge
10/13/10 Christopher A. Lee
10/13/10 huge
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 Christopher A. Lee
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 mikegordge@xtra.co.nz
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 Yap
10/14/10 Christopher A. Lee
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 Yap
10/15/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/14/10 Acme Prognostics
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/15/10 Acme Prognostics
10/14/10 Tron
10/14/10 Acme Prognostics
10/14/10 Tron
10/15/10 Acme Prognostics
10/16/10 Tron
10/16/10 Acme Prognostics
10/18/10 Tron
10/20/10 Acme Prognostics
10/18/10 Tron
10/16/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/17/10 Acme Prognostics
10/17/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/18/10 Tron
10/19/10 Acme Prognostics
10/19/10 Tron
10/20/10 mikegordge@xtra.co.nz
10/21/10 Acme Prognostics
10/24/10 Tron
10/24/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Acme Prognostics
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/27/10 Tron
10/27/10 huge
10/27/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/27/10 huge
10/27/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/27/10 huge
10/27/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/28/10 Acme Prognostics
10/27/10 Zinnic
10/27/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Tron
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/26/10 Tron
10/26/10 Acme Prognostics
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/26/10 Fabrizio J Bonsignore
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/27/10 donstockbauer@hotmail.com
10/27/10 Neon
10/27/10 donstockbauer@hotmail.com
10/27/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/28/10 Immortalist
10/27/10 Tron
12/13/10 Fabrizio J Bonsignore
12/13/10 J Stafford
10/28/10 Acme Prognostics
10/28/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/28/10 dorayme
10/28/10 Immortalist
10/28/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/28/10 Immortalist
10/28/10 Immortalist
10/28/10 Acme Prognostics
10/29/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/29/10 Zinnic
10/29/10 bert
10/29/10 Michael Stemper
10/29/10 Acme Prognostics
10/27/10 Tron
10/29/10 Acme Prognostics
10/29/10 Tron
10/29/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/29/10 Zinnic
10/29/10 Acme Prognostics
11/3/10 Tron
10/29/10 Acme Prognostics
10/30/10 Tron
11/3/10 Acme Prognostics
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/15/10 Acme Prognostics
10/14/10 Acme Prognostics
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 Tron
11/3/10 Acme Prognostics
11/3/10 Tron
11/3/10 Tron
11/7/10 Guest
11/7/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 dorayme
10/14/10 huge
10/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 huge
10/15/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/15/10 The Chief Instigator
10/16/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/14/10 dorayme
10/15/10 huge
10/15/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/15/10 dorayme
10/15/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/15/10 huge
10/15/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/15/10 huge
10/16/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/16/10 huge
10/16/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/16/10 huge
10/16/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/16/10 huge
10/15/10 Daryl McCullough
10/15/10 huge
10/16/10 dorayme
10/16/10 huge
10/16/10 huge
10/16/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/16/10 huge
10/17/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/17/10 huge
10/17/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/17/10 huge
10/17/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/17/10 huge
10/18/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/18/10 huge
10/18/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/18/10 huge
10/18/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/18/10 dorayme
10/18/10 huge
10/18/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/19/10 huge
10/18/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/18/10 huge
10/19/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/19/10 huge
10/19/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/19/10 huge
10/19/10 huge
10/19/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/19/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/20/10 huge
10/20/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/20/10 huge
10/20/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/20/10 huge
10/20/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/20/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/20/10 mikegordge@xtra.co.nz
10/20/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/20/10 huge
10/20/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/20/10 huge
10/21/10 dorayme
10/21/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/21/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/20/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/21/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/21/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/20/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/20/10 huge
10/21/10 Tron
10/21/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/21/10 huge
10/21/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/21/10 huge
10/22/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/22/10 huge
10/22/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/22/10 huge
10/22/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/22/10 huge
10/22/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/22/10 huge
10/22/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/22/10 huge
10/22/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/22/10 huge
10/22/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/22/10 huge
10/22/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/22/10 huge
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/23/10 huge
10/23/10 turtoni
10/23/10 huge
10/23/10 DanielSan
10/23/10 huge
10/23/10 turtoni
10/23/10 turtoni
10/23/10 turtoni
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/23/10 Zinnic
10/23/10 brian fletcher
10/24/10 Zinnic
10/24/10 brian fletcher
10/24/10 turtoni
10/25/10 Zinnic
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/23/10 Zinnic
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/23/10 Zinnic
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Zinnic
10/23/10 Immortalist
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/23/10 Immortalist
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/24/10 Immortalist
10/24/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/23/10 huge
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/24/10 sarge
10/24/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 sarge
10/28/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/28/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/23/10 Zinnic
10/23/10 Immortalist
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Immortalist
10/25/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Immortalist
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/26/10 Immortalist
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/26/10 Immortalist
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/27/10 Immortalist
10/28/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/28/10 donstockbauer@hotmail.com
10/28/10 donstockbauer@hotmail.com
10/28/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/28/10 Tim Golden http://bandtech.com
10/28/10 Tron
10/28/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/28/10 Acme Prognostics
10/23/10 Mike
10/23/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/24/10 Zinnic
10/24/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/24/10 Zinnic
10/24/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Zinnic
10/25/10 bert
10/25/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/24/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/24/10 Proteus
10/24/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Proteus
10/25/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/24/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Zinnic
10/25/10 huge
10/25/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 huge
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Immortalist
10/25/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/26/10 Immortalist
10/29/10 mikegordge@xtra.co.nz
10/31/10 Immortalist
10/23/10 Immortalist
10/24/10 Acme Prognostics
10/24/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Immortalist
10/25/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Immortalist
10/25/10 Acme Prognostics
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/31/10 Immortalist
10/31/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/1/10 Acme Prognostics
11/1/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/7/10 Acme Prognostics
10/24/10 Tron
10/25/10 Acme Prognostics
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/25/10 Tron
10/25/10 Immortalist
10/25/10 Tron
10/25/10 Immortalist
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/26/10 Tron
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/26/10 Zinnic
10/26/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/28/10 Acme Prognostics
10/29/10 Tron
10/29/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/31/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
10/31/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/1/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
11/1/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/1/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
11/1/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/2/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
11/2/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
11/3/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
11/3/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/4/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
11/5/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/5/10 Zinnic
11/5/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
11/2/10 Acme Prognostics
11/2/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/31/10 huge
10/31/10 Acme Prognostics
10/31/10 Tron
10/31/10 James Beck
10/31/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/31/10 James Beck
10/31/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/31/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/31/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/31/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/1/10 James Beck
11/1/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/1/10 James Beck
11/1/10 huge
11/1/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/1/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/2/10 James Beck
11/2/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/2/10 James Beck
11/2/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/2/10 James Beck
11/2/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 James Beck
11/3/10 Errol
11/3/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 James Beck
11/3/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/2/10 huge
11/2/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/2/10 huge
11/3/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 huge
11/3/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 Yap
11/3/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/1/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/19/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/19/10 Edward Green
11/19/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 Yap
11/3/10 Patricia Aldoraz
10/31/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 Tron
11/3/10 Acme Prognostics
11/3/10 Zinnic
11/3/10 Tron
10/31/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 Tron
11/3/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/7/10 Acme Prognostics
11/1/10 Acme Prognostics
11/1/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/3/10 Tron
11/4/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/4/10 huge
11/4/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/4/10 huge
11/4/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/4/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/5/10 huge
11/5/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/5/10 huangxienchen@yahoo.com
11/5/10 huge
11/5/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/5/10 huge
11/5/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/5/10 huge
11/6/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/6/10 huge
11/6/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/7/10 Zinnic
11/5/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/10/10 Acme Prognostics
11/10/10 Tron
11/10/10 Tron
11/11/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/11/10 huge
11/11/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/11/10 huge
11/11/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/11/10 huge
11/11/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/11/10 huge
11/11/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/11/10 huge
11/12/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/12/10 huge
11/12/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/13/10 huge
11/13/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/13/10 huge
11/14/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/15/10 huge
11/15/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/15/10 huge
11/16/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/16/10 huge
11/16/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/16/10 huge
11/16/10 huge
11/16/10 Patricia Aldoraz
11/16/10 huge
11/16/10 Patricia Aldor