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Re: AUSTRALIAN SKEPTICS PRESIDENT REFUSES TO DO THIS PARANORMAL TEST!
Posted:
Apr 9, 2011 12:14 AM
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On Apr 9, 2:05 pm, BruceS <bruce...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > WOAH let's stop right there.
>
> > Haven't I repeatedly told you that my paranormal bias is approx. a
> > CONSTANT +50% over the expected score.
>
> > e.g. HALF RIGHT FROM 3 OPTIONS
>
> > 1.5/50 from 50 options.
>
> You've made a *lot* of claims, many not consistent with others. You
> had been claiming that you could regularly guess a number from 1 to
> 100, or do the equivalent. IIRC, you claimed you could do this
> successfully more than half the time. Later you said you could do it
> with two guesses per number, and also talked about guessing a number 1
> to 50, which is equivalent.
NO!
I'VE TOLD YOU 20 TIMES THAT IS NOT MY CLAIM
AND NOWHERE NEAR MY CLAIM.
50 OPTIONS IS DIFFICULT, BUT I COULD DO IT IF I HAD TO, BUT IT WOULD
TAKE MUCH MUCH LONGER!
YOU KEEP TAKING THE
H Y P O T H E T I C A L
TEST PROTOCOL I USED TO QUIZ PETER ABOUT 'NO GUESSES' AND 'NO MULTI
GUESSES'.
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TRY TO ACKNOWLEDGE THIS SIMPLE POINT.
A 'LONG SHOT' TEST HAS LOWER CONSISTENCY.
IT CAN STILL PROVE A HIGH ODDS BIAS.
*BUT* IT WOULD TAKE 10000 TRIALS AT 100:1 PER TRIAL
JUST TO SEE IF *ANYONE* WAS INSIDE NORMAL RANGE.
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HIGH ODDS / HIGH OPTIONS TRIALS ARE IMPRACTICAL!
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REMEMBER THE HELICOPTER ANALOGY
YOU CAN'T JUST PUSH THE THROTTLE UP TO MAXIMUM, THERE ARE OTHER
VARIABLES THAT IT AFFECTS LIKE THE TAIL ROTOR SPEED.
IF MY CLAIM IS 2/5 THEN YOU CANNOT JUST SAY MAKE IT 200/500
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WHY CANNOT YOU SEE THAT INCREASING ODDS PER TRIAL
*I N C R E A S E S* THE NUMBER OF TRIALS NEEDED!
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