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Topic: [ap-stat] Significance Article Question
Replies: 2   Last Post: Jun 23, 2012 4:48 PM

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 Dave Bock Posts: 6,540 Registered: 12/6/04
Re: [ap-stat] Significance Article Question
Posted: Jun 21, 2012 12:14 PM

And I'll add that, while it's possible that a 1-in-100-million player might appear even in a smaller population, one would probably have to wait much longer for someone as talented to show up again.

On Jun 21, 2012, at 11:52 AM, Bob wrote:

>
> First you have to define what this means, which many reports in the
> media do not do;-) The mention of the normal curve can lead one
> astray here as these populations are finite.
>
> For one possible meaning, imagine a level of piano playing that occurs
> once in a million. (I'm thinking Josef Hoffmann here.) If there are
> 10 million people in the world you might have 10 such payers; if 200
> million, 200. And with the larger population you might get a one in
> 100 million player but probably not in the 10 million population.
>
>
> Forwarded message:

>> From: Erick Gremlich <egremlich@gmail.com>
>>
>> In the April issue of Significance there is an article discussing why there
>> are more piano prodigies and faster runners now than in the past, and it
>> argues that the larger population size of the world now means the "best"
>> now will be better than the "best" in the past solely due to a larger
>> population size.
>>
>>
>> http://www.significancemagazine.org/details/magazine/1755673/Piano-virtuosos-and-the-fourminute-mile.html
>>
>>
>> I am having trouble wrapping my mind around this and why it would be true.
>> The article states that the author assumes that the mean and standard
>> deviation of the population have stayed the same from the past to the
>> present day, but because there are now more people "under the normal curve"
>> the best of the current population will be better than the past "best"
>> performance. Can anyone clear this up for me? Thanks.
>>
>> Erick Gremlich

>
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