And I'll add that, while it's possible that a 1-in-100-million player might appear even in a smaller population, one would probably have to wait much longer for someone as talented to show up again.
On Jun 21, 2012, at 11:52 AM, Bob wrote:
> > First you have to define what this means, which many reports in the > media do not do;-) The mention of the normal curve can lead one > astray here as these populations are finite. > > For one possible meaning, imagine a level of piano playing that occurs > once in a million. (I'm thinking Josef Hoffmann here.) If there are > 10 million people in the world you might have 10 such payers; if 200 > million, 200. And with the larger population you might get a one in > 100 million player but probably not in the 10 million population. > > > Forwarded message: >> From: Erick Gremlich <email@example.com> >> >> In the April issue of Significance there is an article discussing why there >> are more piano prodigies and faster runners now than in the past, and it >> argues that the larger population size of the world now means the "best" >> now will be better than the "best" in the past solely due to a larger >> population size. >> >> >> http://www.significancemagazine.org/details/magazine/1755673/Piano-virtuosos-and-the-fourminute-mile.html >> >> >> I am having trouble wrapping my mind around this and why it would be true. >> The article states that the author assumes that the mean and standard >> deviation of the population have stayed the same from the past to the >> present day, but because there are now more people "under the normal curve" >> the best of the current population will be better than the past "best" >> performance. Can anyone clear this up for me? Thanks. >> >> Erick Gremlich > > Sent from my nine-year-old Dell GX-260 running Mepis Linux 8.0 > -------> First-time AP Stats. teacher? Help is on the way! See > http://courses.ncssm.edu/math/Stat_Inst/Stats2007/Bob%20Hayden/Relief.html > _ > | | Robert W. Hayden > | | 142 Main Street > / | Apartment 104 > | | Jaffrey, New Hampshire 03452 USA > | | email: bob@ the site below > / | website: http://statland.org > | x / phone: (603) 532-7224 (home) > '''''' > > > > Frequently asked questions(FAQ) http://mrmathman.com/faq > List Archives from 1994: http://mathforum.org/kb/forum.jspa?forumID=67 > ap-stat resources: http://apstatsmonkey.com > --- > To search the list archives for previous posts go to > http://lyris.collegeboard.com/read/?forum=ap-stat > To unsubscribe click here: > http://lyris.collegeboard.com/read/my_forums/ > To change your subscription address or other settings click here: > http://lyris.collegeboard.com/read/my_account/edit