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RE: Romney Wasn't Conservative Enough -- Statistically Feasible?
Posted:
Nov 8, 2012 2:00 PM
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That depends on the range of voters you expect would be attracted to a candidate. If we have a bimodal distribution of voters with a great difference between the modes, and if candidates attract a relatively narrow range of voters close to their own position, then it would be far better to be on one of the ends than near the center.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-mathedcc@mathforum.org [mailto:owner-mathedcc@mathforum.org] On Behalf Of John
Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2012 12:21 PM
To: mathedcc@mathforum.org
Subject: Romney Wasn't Conservative Enough -- Statistically Feasible?
Not really sure if this is the correct forum for this, but here goes:
After the presidential election, a number of pundits are saying that gov. Romney lost because >> he wasn't conservative enough <<.
Thinking about this mathematically, I've drawn a simple number line of political affiliation below.
The spectrum extends from 100% liberal (-1) on the left to 100% conservative (+1) on the right.
In order to appeal to the MAXIMUM number of voters, isn't it clear that a candidate should position
himself/herself EXACTLY IN THE CENTER (i.e., at the "0" point along the number line)?
How can one's moving further to the right (away from "0" and closer to "+1") possibly have the effect
of attracting more voters?
-1........................0........................+1
|----------------------|----------------------|
100% Liberal Moderate 100% Conservative
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