> 3. The solution is finite only if every team has won at least > one game and lost at least one game. That doesn't happen until > after week 10. After that the problem is well conditioned and > you shouldn't need to mess with the precision.
Yes, I was aware of this. However, "FindMaximum" doesn't step to infinity, and "prob[x,m,n]" returns sensible, if inaccurate, results. (It will always find that a team with a perfect record has an estimated 100% chance of beating a team with an imperfect record.) The predictions earlier in the season weren't really very good, but lately they've been outperforming those of Elliot Harrison on his nfl.com blog.
Scott -- Scott Hemphill firstname.lastname@example.org "This isn't flying. This is falling, with style." -- Buzz Lightyear