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Topic: Beating the Odds?
Replies: 35   Last Post: Feb 6, 2013 3:44 PM

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Posts: 43
Registered: 11/26/12
Re: Beating the Odds?
Posted: Jan 30, 2013 3:50 AM
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On Wednesday, January 30, 2013 12:29:09 AM UTC-8, William Elliot wrote:
> There is a fair coin with a different integer on each side that you can't
> see and you have no clue how these integers were selected. The coin is
> flipped and you get to see what comes up. You must guess if that was the
> larger of the two numbers or not. Can you do so with probability > 1/2?

Well, there was the monty hall problem years ago. Suppose there are 3
keys and you have to choose one. One of the three turns on a car's engine
where the other two do not. After you choose a key Monte takes one and
tries it in the car and it doesn't turn over the engine. He then asks
you if you'd like to change your mind. What should you do? You should
change your mind because the first key you chose had a one in three chance
of turning on the car where the remaining key has a two in three chance.


Assuming the coin only has positive integers then you should guess
the number showing is the smaller integer because there are more
integers greater than x than there are less than x and this is true
for all positive integers x.

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