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Topic: Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same

Replies: 3   Last Post: Feb 17, 2013 8:26 PM

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David Bernier

Posts: 3,892
Registered: 12/13/04
Re: Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same

Posted: Feb 17, 2013 5:39 PM
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On 02/17/2013 04:36 PM, bob haller wrote:
> On Feb 17, 12:28 pm, "DonH"<> wrote:
>> "Robert Clark"<> wrote in message

>>> I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
>>> the size of 2012 DA14 getting this close occur about once in 30
>>> years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
>>> about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
>>> the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
>>> particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
>>> Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
>>> 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
>>> 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
>>> On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should
>>> be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to
>>> large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime.

>>> Bob Clark
>> # So, is there any evidence that the meteor "pealed off" from the asteroid,
>> or that there is some connection between the two - apart from coincidence of
>> occurrence?

> Think of playing pool, in a larger sense thats where we live.
> The two may not be releated, but could be, as part of some collisions
> perhaps before any of us were born.....
> Its possible our earth may be in a area of space with more litter than
> usual.
> People will get more interested if we get more incoming. Or nasa
> tracks the one that missed and finds its perturbed by earths gravity
> and will be back to impact somewhere on our planet

Meteor showers like the Perseids have a so-called radiant
point in Perseus, from which they trace back. This is
because the fragments are travelling in parallel directions
w.r.t. the "fixed" solar system and the earth passes through
this bunch of objects whose orbits "intersect" earth's
orbit at one point in the yearly cycle.

For the Russian meteor, by tracing back all the paths,
perhaps one could locate its radiant on the celestial
sphere along an arc of great circle.

So, that in turn would constrain the direction in
space of the meteor's velocity vector w.r.t. the
fixed solar system just before it hit earth.

So, the idea is to learn more about the direction of travel
of the Russian meteor w.r.t. the solar system, to compare
it with the velocity vector of the asteroid ...

David Bernier

dracut:/# lvm vgcfgrestore
File descriptor 9 (/.console_lock) leaked on lvm invocation. Parent PID
993: sh
Please specify a *single* volume group to restore.

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