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Re: Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same time.
Posted:
Feb 23, 2013 3:27 PM
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On Feb 19, 2:52 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
> Here's the article by the Yale astronomer:
>
> A meteor and asteroid: 1 in 100 million odds.
> By Meg Urry, Special to CNN
> updated 8:16 PM EST, Mon February 18, 2013http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/16/opinion/urry-meteor-asteroid/index.html
>
> She states the two have very different orbits so they should be
> unrelated, but acknowledges that the very low probability of their
> both occurring so close to each other in time is puzzling.
> In view of the very real dangers that would arise IF it is the case
> they are related I think we should investigate some possible ways this
> could occur. What I mean by this is cases where we assume asteroids
> that make close approaches but do not impact, and therefore offer no
> threat, still could have associated fragments that do impact.
> ...
Smaller fireballs were also seen over Florida and San Francisco:
Florida fireballs? Experts say Florida fireball was a small meteorite
FLORIDA FIREBALLS FEBRUARY 19, 2013 BY: ED WALSH
http://www.examiner.com/article/florida-fireballs-experts-say-florida-fireball-was-a-small-meteorite
Francisco Bay area residents report fireball sighting
By Associated Press,February 16, 2013
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-02-16/national/37127918_1_american-meteor-society-large-meteor-fireballs
The Air Force has infrasound detectors that can measure atmospheric
explosions. The size of these fireballs needs to be determined to find
out how rare they are. In those articles they say both that they occur
everyday and also they occur at the rate of 5 to 10 a year. If their
size is such they occur even ten times a year, then the probability of
one of these meteors of this size occurring on one day is 1 in 36. Now
the probability of all three events happening on the same day jumps to
1 in several billion.
The 2029 close approach of the near Earth asteroid Apophis means this
is a question that needs to be determined definitively. It also like
2012 DA14 is expected to come so close as to get inside the ring of
geosynchronous satellites, but not impact. Apophis is so large though
that, unlike 2012 DA14 , on closest approach it will even be visible
to the naked eye. If it is the case that it can be accompanied by
fragments that do impact then that is potentially very serious because
its larger size means it would likely be accompanied by larger
fragments.
To answer this question a statistical study needs to be made both of
the Air Force infrasound detectors and the space radar detections to
find whether on the 2012 DA14 close approach or on other previous
close approaches whether there was an increase in meteor hits.
Bob Clark
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