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Topic: The Math That Predicted The Revolutions Sweeping The Globe Right Now
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Dr. Jai Maharaj

Posts: 276
Registered: 1/30/06
The Math That Predicted The Revolutions Sweeping The Globe Right Now
Posted: Feb 25, 2014 1:54 AM
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The Math That Predicted The Revolutions Sweeping The Globe Right Now

Written by Brian Merchant
Motherboard
motherboard.vice.com
February 19, 2014

It's happening in Ukraine, Venezuela, Thailand, Bosnia,
Syria, and beyond. Revolutions, unrest, and riots are
sweeping the globe. The near-simultaneous eruption of
violent protest can seem random and chaotic; inevitable
symptoms of an unstable world. But there's at least one
common thread between the disparate nations, cultures,
and people in conflict, one element that has demonstrably
proven to make these uprisings more likely: high global
food prices. 

Just over a year ago, complex systems theorists at the
New England Complex Systems Institute warned us that if
food prices continued to climb, so too would the
likelihood that there would be riots across the globe.
Sure enough, we're seeing them now. The paper's author,
Yaneer Bar-Yam, charted the rise in the FAO food price
index—a measure the UN uses to map the cost of food over
time—and found that whenever it rose above 210, riots
broke out worldwide. It happened in 2008 after the
economic collapse, and again in 2011, when a Tunisian
street vendor who could no longer feed his family set
himself on fire in protest. 

Bar-Yam built a model with the data, which then predicted
that something like the Arab Spring would ensue just
weeks before it did. Four days before Mohammed Bouazizi's
self-immolation helped ignite the revolution that would
spread across the region, NECSI submitted a government
report that highlighted the risk that rising food prices
posed to global stability. Now, the model has once again
proven prescient—2013 saw the third-highest food prices
on record, and that's when the seeds for the conflicts
across the world were sown.

Continues at:

http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/a-complex-systems-model-predicted-the-revolutions-sweeping-the-globe-right

Jai Maharaj, Jyotishi
Om Shanti

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.fan.jai-maharaj



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