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Topic: Risk factor algorithm
Replies: 3   Last Post: Dec 11, 2004 2:27 PM

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Nick

Posts: 2
Registered: 1/25/05
Risk factor algorithm
Posted: Dec 10, 2004 5:34 PM
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I need to come up with an algorithm that determines the probability of
a check being bad based on how many good ones and bad ones were written
and the date that the bad ones were written. Can anyone help?

For example, Joe writes 50 checks over a period of 5 years.
10 were bad but were written more than a year ago
20 were good but also were written more than a year ago
10 were bad and written within the past year
10 were good and written within the past year

Out of 100, what's the chance that the next check Joe writes is going
to be bad keeping in mind that the older the check, the less weight it
carries?

Thanks for any help!

Nick


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