Josh, Sorry, I lose full credit for failure to read the problem. I should have said draw 20 numbers or cards at random. Sorry Pat B
______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________ Subject: Re: Probability ? Author: Pat Ballew at ~misa-hs Date: 5/10/96 1:10 PM
Josh, Why not simultate the event. Have your computer "randomly" pick four numbers from 1 to 80 a couple of thousand times. since it doesn't matter what numbers you pick, pick 1,2,3,4 and count how many times you win and how much in a couple of different arrays, then you will know if your result or their result is better. Of course if you don't trust the computer you could put four aces in a group of 80 cards (with no OTHER aces), shuffle, deal 4, count aces, record results, repeat until the results seem to be within a limit of your satisfaction.
Pat Ballew Misawa, Japan
______________________________ Reply Separator _________________________________ Subject: Probability ? Author: Josh_Tabor@bubbs.biola.edu (Josh Tabor) at EDU-INTERNET Date: 5/8/96 10:15 PM
I've got a probability question that I'm having trouble with. In California, we have a lottery/keno game and I am interested in the expected value of the game. In one version, you are allowed to pick 4 numbers from 1 to 80 inclusive. Every 5 minutes a computer randomly draws 20 winning numbers. If all four of yours are in the winning 20, you win $50 (for a $1 bet), 3 of 4 = $4, and 2 of 4 = $1. How do you calculate the probability of each case? The published odds of winning a prize (4,3, or 2 correct) are 1:3.9. I've tried several different approaches and cannot get my answer to match th published odds. Help.