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Probability Software
Posted:
May 22, 1996 2:47 PM


Anyone have suggestions for Probability Simulation Software? I am running Mac but either platform is worth knowing about. How about for the TI82/83?
 What follows are my notes on a session about teaching probability at NCTM San Diego. The Prob Sim software mention in the final paragraph was wonderful. Anyone use it? I am contacting the Author about buying his software. Will let you know how.
TITLE: Getting to the Important Stuff in Probability: Cliff Konold, UMass/Amherst (was with TERC  KONOLD@SRRI.UMASS.EDU)
A+ thinker and presenter. Graduate work in how students perceive probability in contrast to how we try to teach probability:
* Students often have an Outcome Approach to a probabilistic statement, i.e. "Questions of probability are often interpreted as requests to predict the outcome of a single trial."
Example 1: When asked to interpret a weatherperson's statement that "there is a 70% chance of rain today," and it does not rain, students often think the weatherperson is not good at his/her job. They reason since 70% is close to 3/4 of the timexwhich is a lot more than 50% of the timexthe prediction is that IT WILL RAIN. They map the prediction into a YES/NO prediction.
Example 2: Students think important features of a population should be evident in a sample. For example, they would expect that a five flip sequence of a coin would produce HTHTH more often than say, THTTH, since there is a 50% likelihood or either an H or T.
* Showed a great, simple probability simulation program called Prob Sim marketed by Intellimation. Simple, realistic  forces the user to break the problem into sensible parts rather than creating one, all or nothing, probabilistic expression for the answer.



