Anyone have suggestions for Probability Simulation Software? I am running Mac but either platform is worth knowing about. How about for the TI-82/83?
---------------------------------------------------- What follows are my notes on a session about teaching probability at NCTM San Diego. The Prob Sim software mention in the final paragraph was wonderful. Anyone use it? I am contacting the Author about buying his software. Will let you know how.
TITLE: Getting to the Important Stuff in Probability: Cliff Konold, UMass/Amherst (was with TERC - KONOLD@SRRI.UMASS.EDU)
A+ thinker and presenter. Graduate work in how students perceive probability in contrast to how we try to teach probability:
* Students often have an Outcome Approach to a probabilistic statement, i.e. "Questions of probability are often interpreted as requests to predict the outcome of a single trial."
Example 1: When asked to interpret a weather-person's statement that "there is a 70% chance of rain today," and it does not rain, students often think the weather-person is not good at his/her job. They reason since 70% is close to 3/4 of the timexwhich is a lot more than 50% of the timexthe prediction is that IT WILL RAIN. They map the prediction into a YES/NO prediction.
Example 2: Students think important features of a population should be evident in a sample. For example, they would expect that a five flip sequence of a coin would produce HTHTH more often than say, THTTH, since there is a 50% likelihood or either an H or T.
* Showed a great, simple probability simulation program called Prob Sim marketed by Intellimation. Simple, realistic - forces the user to break the problem into sensible parts rather than creating one, all or nothing, probabilistic expression for the answer.