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Topic: Pitfalls with simple probability
Replies: 1   Last Post: Aug 26, 2012 2:13 AM

 Messages: [ Previous | Next ]
 Tony Miller Posts: 1 Registered: 8/26/12
Pitfalls with simple probability
Posted: Aug 26, 2012 12:30 AM

All
I have historical data on horse trainers and their race results going
back several years.I calculate the simple probability if Trainer A
uses a gear change then in the last 3 years his success rate was
Number winners/Total Runners
to give me a strike rate or probability.

Questions:

1.How do I test for the optimal historical period to use for my
probabilities.ie 3 years or 10 years of data .I could go back a decade
for a larger N but then then things change over time
Or is it best to just run my own trials

2. What are the pitfalls for using this simple approach to predict
future outcomes

Date Subject Author
8/26/12 Tony Miller
8/26/12 Richard Ulrich