Sounds very reasonable, especially with only 1,000 people in that group and even fewer in the other.
Separately, I am not convinced that many science Nobel Prize winners are particularly intelligent. They are of course none of them fools, but a couple of biographies I have read give me more the impression of normally bright scientists who happen to be in the right lab at the right time, and choose the right topic to research.
Many research breakthroughs are in unexpected areas, where someone quite junior chooses an eccentric-sounding topic to study, and a decade later turns out to be at a place suddenly judged more interesting than it had seemed to specialists a decade earlier.
There might even be a mild _inverse_ correlation for the extremely high IQ to win a Nobel - someone with moderately high IQ (who does not get persuaded into the fashionable field of research everyone thinks is the next big thing when he is 22) might have a better chance.