Paul
Posts:
271
Registered:
7/12/10
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Re: probability question about the dice game
Posted:
Feb 16, 2013 8:45 AM
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Staying with the theme of odds terminology, but moving away from the argument, in UK bookmaking, if there are two possible choices, and one of the choices is 1/1, the other event will probably be 8/11. In other words, if you bet 11 units on the more likely choice and win your bet, you will make a profit of 8 units. If a bookmaker says "evens" in this context, they probably mean the less likely 1/1 choice. If two events are equally probable, the most common bookmaking (or "pricing" as it is called in the trade) is to make the two events both 5/6. (Bet 6 and make a profit of 5 if you win). If there is an enormous amount of pressure from competing bookmakers, 10/11 10/11 is an option but this is rarer. If both events give the same payoff, and are therefore both considered equally likely, this is referred to as "pick". In summary, "evens" usually means about 46% probability in bookmaking argot, and "pick" means 50% probability.
Paul Epstein
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