Search All of the Math Forum:

Views expressed in these public forums are not endorsed by NCTM or The Math Forum.

Notice: We are no longer accepting new posts, but the forums will continue to be readable.

Topic: Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same time.
Replies: 27   Last Post: Oct 3, 2013 10:40 PM

 Messages: [ Previous | Next ]
 Bacle H Posts: 283 Registered: 4/8/12
Re: Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same time.
Posted: Feb 17, 2013 1:32 PM

On Sunday, February 17, 2013 7:43:27 AM UTC-8, Mike Dworetsky wrote:
> Robert Clark wrote:
>

> > I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
>
> > the size of 2012 DA14 getting this close occur about once in 30
>
> > years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
>
> > about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
>
> > the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
>
> > particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
>
> > Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
>
> > 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
>
> > 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
>
> > On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should
>
> > be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to
>
> > large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime.
>
> >
>
> > Bob Clark
>
>
>
> However unlikely, the coincidence did occur. And they were on very
>
> different orbits, hence unrelated physically. All you can really conclude
>
> is that it was very unlikely, but it did happen.
>
>
>
> By your argument, you should be deeply disturbed every time someone wins a
>
> big lottery sweepstakes, or is killed by lightning. These are also rare
>
> events for individuals but they do happen
>
> regularly to someone in a larger population
>

I think a better comparison would be the event of someone winning the

lottery _and_ being hit by lightning, since the OP considered a pair

of unlikely events happenning at the same/similar times.
>
>
> Would you be worried if they had been a week apart? A month?.
>
>
>
> --
>
> Mike Dworetsky
>
>
>
> (Remove pants sp*mbl*ck to reply)