On Feb 17, 6:32 pm, baclesb...@gmail.com wrote: > On Sunday, February 17, 2013 7:43:27 AM UTC-8, Mike Dworetsky wrote: > > Robert Clark wrote: > > > > I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids > > > > the size of 2012 DA14 getting this close occur about once in 30 > > > > years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere > > > > about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in > > > > the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a > > > > particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the > > > > Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then > > > > 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in > > > > 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely. > > > > On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should > > > > be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to > > > > large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime. > > > > Bob Clark > > > However unlikely, the coincidence did occur. And they were on very > > > different orbits, hence unrelated physically. All you can really conclude > > > is that it was very unlikely, but it did happen. > > > By your argument, you should be deeply disturbed every time someone wins a > > > big lottery sweepstakes, or is killed by lightning. These are also rare > > > events for individuals but they do happen > > > regularly to someone in a larger population > > I think a better comparison would be the event of someone winning the > > lottery _and_ being hit by lightning, since the OP considered a pair > > of unlikely events happenning at the same/similar times.
A quick search shows about 1000 people hit by lightning in the USA each year. 1 in 280,000 that it happens to a specific person this year, maybe 1 in 4,000 that it happens to a person in their lifetime. I'd assume the chances are the same elsewhere in the world, and I'd think there have been many more than 4,000 lottery winners (winner = getting the highest possible number of numbers right), so it is most likely that there is a person who won the lottery _and_ was hit by lightning.