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Topic: Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same time.
Replies: 27   Last Post: Oct 3, 2013 10:40 PM

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 gnasher729 Posts: 419 Registered: 10/7/06
Re: Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same time.
Posted: Feb 17, 2013 3:57 PM

On Feb 17, 6:32 pm, baclesb...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Sunday, February 17, 2013 7:43:27 AM UTC-8, Mike Dworetsky wrote:
> > Robert Clark wrote:
>
> > > I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
>
> > > the size of 2012 DA14  getting this close occur about once in 30
>
> > > years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
>
> > > about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
>
> > > the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
>
> > > particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
>
> > > Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
>
> > > 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
>
> > > 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
>
> > > On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should
>
> > > be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to
>
> > > large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime.
>
> > > Bob Clark
>
> > However unlikely, the coincidence did occur.  And they were on very
>
> > different orbits, hence unrelated physically.  All you can really conclude
>
> > is that it was very unlikely, but it did happen.
>
> > By your argument, you should be deeply disturbed every time someone wins a
>
> > big lottery sweepstakes, or is killed by lightning.  These are also rare
>
> > events for individuals but they do happen
>
> > regularly to someone in a larger population
>
>    I think a better comparison would be the event of someone winning the
>
>  lottery _and_ being hit by lightning, since the OP considered a pair
>
>  of unlikely events happenning at the same/similar times.

A quick search shows about 1000 people hit by lightning in the USA
each year. 1 in 280,000 that it happens to a specific person this
year, maybe 1 in 4,000 that it happens to a person in their lifetime.
I'd assume the chances are the same elsewhere in the world, and I'd
think there have been many more than 4,000 lottery winners (winner =
getting the highest possible number of numbers right), so it is most
likely that there is a person who won the lottery _and_ was hit by
lightning.