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Topic: Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same
time.

Replies: 3   Last Post: Feb 17, 2013 8:26 PM

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David Bernier

Posts: 3,366
Registered: 12/13/04
Re: Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same
time.

Posted: Feb 17, 2013 8:26 PM
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On 02/17/2013 06:16 PM, David Bernier wrote:
> On 02/17/2013 05:39 PM, David Bernier wrote:
>> On 02/17/2013 04:36 PM, bob haller wrote:
>>> On Feb 17, 12:28 pm, "DonH"<donlhumphr...@bigpond.com> wrote:
>>>> "Robert Clark"<rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>>>>
>>>> news:95a465f3-3aa8-4d97-a757-b6354ae1dd96@y9g2000vbb.googlegroups.com...
>>>>
>>>>

>>>>> I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
>>>>> the size of 2012 DA14 getting this close occur about once in 30
>>>>> years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
>>>>> about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
>>>>> the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
>>>>> particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
>>>>> Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
>>>>> 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
>>>>> 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
>>>>> On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should
>>>>> be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to
>>>>> large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime.

>>>>
>>>>> Bob Clark
>>>>
>>>> # So, is there any evidence that the meteor "pealed off" from the
>>>> asteroid,
>>>> or that there is some connection between the two - apart from
>>>> coincidence of
>>>> occurrence?

>>>
>>> Think of playing pool, in a larger sense thats where we live.
>>>
>>> The two may not be releated, but could be, as part of some collisions
>>> perhaps before any of us were born.....
>>>
>>> Its possible our earth may be in a area of space with more litter than
>>> usual.
>>>
>>> People will get more interested if we get more incoming. Or nasa
>>> tracks the one that missed and finds its perturbed by earths gravity
>>> and will be back to impact somewhere on our planet

>>
>> Meteor showers like the Perseids have a so-called radiant
>> point in Perseus, from which they trace back. This is
>> because the fragments are travelling in parallel directions
>> w.r.t. the "fixed" solar system and the earth passes through
>> this bunch of objects whose orbits "intersect" earth's
>> orbit at one point in the yearly cycle.
>>
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiant_%28meteor_shower%29
>>
>> For the Russian meteor, by tracing back all the paths,
>> perhaps one could locate its radiant on the celestial
>> sphere along an arc of great circle.
>>
>> So, that in turn would constrain the direction in
>> space of the meteor's velocity vector w.r.t. the
>> fixed solar system just before it hit earth.
>>
>> So, the idea is to learn more about the direction of travel
>> of the Russian meteor w.r.t. the solar system, to compare
>> it with the velocity vector of the asteroid ...
>>
>> David Bernier
>>

>
> The video below linked was made by a graphic animation
> company:
> http://www.crazyengineers.com/russian-meteors-path-tracked-by-computer-simulation/
>
>
> It shows the meteor coming from ? towards
>
> Chelyabinsk. North is exactly at the top ...


North isn't exactly at top.

> The path is roughly from East-North-East to North-East.
>
> Also, the earth rotated between 9:20 am Chelyabinsk time
> and the time of the closest approach of asteroid
> 2012 DA14.
>
> Also, the path above earth of the meteor wont show
> the angle of descent: the meteor was falling.
>
>
>


I find that when approaching Chelyabinsk, the meteor was
coming from about 20 degres North of East, or
at an Azimuth of 70 degrees, close to
East-North-East.

But from NASA:
"Asteroid DA14's trajectory is in the opposite direction, from south to
north.".

Asteroid DA14 crossed the equatorial plane of earth
going pretty much South to North, and it can be seen in
the animation at the very end.

The meteor's mass is estimated at 7000 to 10,000 tons.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/asteroid20130215.html



--
dracut:/# lvm vgcfgrestore
File descriptor 9 (/.console_lock) leaked on lvm invocation. Parent PID
993: sh
Please specify a *single* volume group to restore.



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