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Topic: The *paradoxal* Jacob Cohen
Replies: 1   Last Post: Apr 14, 2013 9:40 AM

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Luis A. Afonso

Posts: 4,613
From: LIsbon (Portugal)
Registered: 2/16/05
The *paradoxal* Jacob Cohen
Posted: Apr 13, 2013 7:59 PM
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To produce *arguments* against NHST (Null Hypothesis Statistical Tests) people remind the Jacob Cohen´s *paradox*:
1) Is very rare an American be Member of Congress,
2) Given that John Smith is a member
Conclusion: is very unlike John Smith being an American . . .
__________
I thought Cohen´s was kidding me, I mean, the first time I got the reasoning.
First of all: Since one arrives to an evident nonsense Cohen, instead to try to find where the fallacy was, accept there is something wrong (naively or intentionally).
Secondly: if we take into account that a necessary quality (without any exception) to be a member of the Congress is the American Citizenship the conclusion loses any sense at all.
Third: The depending on chance events (probabilistic) are not governed by Classical Deductive Logic, rather from Inductive one: from the particular to the general not from the general to the particular: ___All humans are mortal, Socrates is human: then Socrates is mortal.

Luis A. Afonso



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