Search All of the Math Forum:
Views expressed in these public forums are not endorsed by
NCTM or The Math Forum.



Re: a Monty Hall variant
Posted:
Oct 12, 2013 4:16 AM


RichD writes:
> You know the Monty Hall problem, now consider > the Random Monty Hall problem: as before, you > face 3 doors, hiding a car, and 2 pigs. You > choose door #1. This time, a wind gust blows > through the studio, opening door #2, revealing > a pig. Do you switch to #3? > > This problem is more confusing than the original, > though probably not for this group. And, there's > another possibility  it may be defective, ill > posed, as stated.
Usually there are people who insist that the described situation is repeatable. They say that this is somehow implied in the question. Let us make that assumption.
So, suppose you play 1000 times, and every time a wind gust blows through the studio, opening a pig door. Surely the wind is deliberately avoiding the door that hides the car. Maybe the host has closed the car door and your door so well that the wind does not open either of them.
Therefore, switch as usual, based on unstated but implied assumptions, as usual.
</sarcasm>



