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Topic: a Monty Hall variant
Replies: 3   Last Post: Oct 12, 2013 5:13 PM

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Jussi Piitulainen

Posts: 355
Registered: 12/12/04
Re: a Monty Hall variant
Posted: Oct 12, 2013 4:16 AM
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RichD writes:

> You know the Monty Hall problem, now consider
> the Random Monty Hall problem: as before, you
> face 3 doors, hiding a car, and 2 pigs. You
> choose door #1. This time, a wind gust blows
> through the studio, opening door #2, revealing
> a pig. Do you switch to #3?
> This problem is more confusing than the original,
> though probably not for this group. And, there's
> another possibility - it may be defective, ill
> posed, as stated.

Usually there are people who insist that the
described situation is repeatable. They say that
this is somehow implied in the question. Let us
make that assumption.

So, suppose you play 1000 times, and every time a
wind gust blows through the studio, opening a pig
door. Surely the wind is deliberately avoiding
the door that hides the car. Maybe the host has
closed the car door and your door so well that the
wind does not open either of them.

Therefore, switch as usual, based on unstated but
implied assumptions, as usual.


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