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Topic: [ncsm-members] Gen'l Interest: When your city will feel climate change
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Jerry P. Becker

Posts: 16,576
Registered: 12/3/04
[ncsm-members] Gen'l Interest: When your city will feel climate change
Posted: Oct 16, 2013 12:38 PM
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From WIRED.CO.UK, Saturday, October 12, 2013. See
Find out when your city will feel climate change

By Duncan Geere

A group of researchers from the University of
Hawaii have crunched the numbers to find out when
cities around the globe will have their climate
changed by greenhouse gas emissions -- see

It's no secret that different parts of the world
won't be affected at the same time, in the same
way, by the effects of climate change. The
Arctic, for example, is changing far faster than
the rest of the world.

But cities are where the majority of the human
(rather than environmental) impact of climate
change will happen, and so Camilo Mora and
colleagues looked at the major population centres
of the world to find out when the weather of each
city moves outside its "normal" range (defined as
between 1860 and 2005) into something new in a
scenario where emissions aren't significantly
curtailed. Their results were published in
Nature. [See

First up against the wall is the city of
Manokwari in Indonesia, the capital of West Papua
and home to 286,000 people. Those residents will
start feeling a departure from "normal"
temperatures and rainfall in 2020, followed by
the 28 million people living in Jakarta and the 8
million people living in Lagos by 2029.

The 8.8 million people crammed into Mexico City
will be next in 2031, followed by Mumbai in 2034
and Bogot√°, Cario, Baghdad and Nairobi in 2036.
New York, San Francisco, Rome, Tokyo and Beijing
will be hit in the 2040s, followed by London in
2056. Reykjavik and Anchorage will be last, in
2066 and 2071 respectively. You can find a full
list of the world's cities, and when they're
expected to shift into the "new normal" at

"Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in
the tropics and among low-income countries,
highlighting the vulnerability of global
biodiversity and the limited governmental
capacity to respond to the impacts of climate
change," the paper reads.

The team also looked at when the same thing would
occur if emissions were somewhat curtailed.
Cities would still arrive in a different climate
regime by the end of the century, but would be
given an extra twenty years, on average, to adapt
to the changes.

"Our results suggest that countries first
impacted by unprecedented climates are the ones
with the least capacity to respond," Ryan
Longman, one of the co-authors of the study, told
Climate News Network. "Ironically, these are
countries that are least responsible for climate
change in the first place."

Jerry P. Becker
Dept. of Curriculum & Instruction
Southern Illinois University
625 Wham Drive
Mail Code 4610
Carbondale, IL 62901-4610
Phone: (618) 453-4241 [O]
(618) 457-8903 [H]
Fax: (618) 453-4244

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