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Topic: Q: Statistical Significance - Neural Networks?
Replies: 3   Last Post: Feb 24, 2014 3:59 AM

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JoeCL

Posts: 8
Registered: 5/17/13
Q: Statistical Significance - Neural Networks?
Posted: Feb 22, 2014 7:46 PM
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Hello Everyone,

I'm working with artificial neural networks and I need to derive some
indication of how well the networks are identifying intended targets versus
non-targets.

The thing is that all targets are definitely not created equal. Some targets
are much more important than others to get right, while others are of lower
importance.

I looked at this problem from a coin-toss perspective and used an online
binomial calculator
(http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx#TopPage) to try to say
that the chances of the neural network identifying targets by dumb luck was
exceedingly unlikely. But this is based on all targets being of equal value
and assuming a simple correctness measure (fraction right out of the total
targets the network thought it found).

If, as I said, the targets are of unequal value, then a correctness measure
is only part of what's needed and some kind of weighting is involved.

Do you have any thoughts about how to derive statistics that demonstrate the
statistical significance of a neural network's "correctness" versus sheer
chance when the targets are of unequal importance? And then, how would I
state the results?

With much appreciation for any insights?

Kindest regards,

Joe





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