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Luis A. Afonso
Posts:
4,715
From:
LIsbon (Portugal)
Registered:
2/16/05


Astonishing
Posted:
May 18, 2014 4:06 PM


Astonishing Statements I had heard here (from Jack Tomsky)
Date: Aug 17, 2007 12:17 PM
Author: Luis A. Afonso
Subject: Re: The latest Jack Tomsky BLUNDER (II)
Jack Tomsky wrote:
*** In my role as an unpaid moderator for the forum, I have to point out that Afonso assigned a probability of less than one to the team winning 62 out of the first 120 games. Since these games have been completed and the outcomes observed, the probability of winning 62 out of the first 120 is one. That's why Afonso's numbers don't make any sense. Jack (moderator of the Math Forum).*** ________________________________________________
My response
From a textbook I MODIFIED a basic definition in order to be in accordance with the SINGULAR idea Jack Tomsky have in respect to Probability. ___Probability is a set function P that assigns to each event A in the sample space S a number P(A) (called Probability of the event A) such that the following properties are satisfied:
___P (A) = 1 iff the event A was occurred ___P (A) = 0 iff does not
___THEREFORE COROLLARY 1 __ The Calculus of Probability is reduced to a post verification (after the trial) if the event has occurred or not occurred. ALL FORECASTING relative to the event output is NOT ALLOWED. COROLLARY .2 __ It is superfluous and disturbing to the theory tough an event is a priori more liable or less liable to occur: only the trial outputs are able show this feature among events.
Conclusion US statisticians are all POSTMORTEM SURGEONS following Jack´s theory): Luis.



