Why Add Probabilities in an OR Statement?Date: 05/25/99 at 21:32:57 From: Mike Subject: Probability: Why do we add an OR statement? Can you please answer my question? Why is it that whenever we want to find the probability of, for example, rolling a 2 or a 3 on a die we add up the number of twos and threes? Or when we want to find the probability of getting an ace or king we add up aces and kings? It is the OR that I am not getting. Why do we add? I have also heard of P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B). I understand when it is one specific thing like picking an ace or rolling an even number, etc., but not when there is an "or." Please try to give me an explanation. Thanks! Date: 05/26/99 at 12:52:43 From: Doctor Peterson Subject: Re: Probability: Why do we add an OR statement? Hi, Mike. Good question! The probability of an event is the ratio of the number of (equally likely) cases in which the event will happen, to the total number of possible cases. You can think of it in terms of area: if I draw a circle on the floor and drop an object in such a way that it is equally likely to fall at any point on the floor, the probability of its falling in that circle is the ratio of the area of the circle to the area of the floor: +-------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ***** | | ***.....*** | | *...........* | | *......A......* | | *.............* | | *...........* | | ***.....*** | | ***** | | | +-------------------------------------------+ Now if I draw two circles that don't overlap, then the probability of its falling in circle A OR circle B is the ratio of the area of both circles together to the area of the floor: +-------------------------------------------+ | ********* | | ***---------*** | | **---------------** | | *-------------------* | | *---------------------* | | *----------B----------* | | *---------------------* | | ***** *-------------------* | | ***.....*** **---------------** | | *...........* ***---------*** | | *......A......* ********* | | *.............* | | *...........* | | ***.....*** | | ***** | | | +-------------------------------------------+ But the total area of A and B is just the sum of the areas of the two circles, so the probability of its landing in either A or B is the sum of the two probabilities. This is what we are doing whenever we find the probability of either of two mutually exclusive events (that is, both A and B can't happen at the same time), such as getting a King OR a Queen. In the examples you give, you can work it out very easily: just count the number of cards that are either a King or a Queen, and you'll find that you're adding the number of Kings and the number of Queens. Divide the sum by the total number of cards, and it's the sum of the two probabilities: N(A or B) N(A) + N(B) N(A) N(B) P(A or B) = ----------- = ----------- = ---- + ---- = P(A) + P(B) N(universe) N(universe) N(U) N(U) Now if A and B overlap, then we won't be able to tell what the probability of either event happening will be unless we have additional information to tell us how much they overlap: +-------------------------------------------+ | | | | | | | ********* | | ***---------*** | | **---------------** | | *-------------------* | | *****--------------------* | | ***...*x***------B----------* | | *......*xxxx*----------------* | | *......A.*xxxx*--------------* | | *.........**xx*------------** | | *..........***---------*** | | ***.....*** ********* | | ***** | | | +-------------------------------------------+ So if you want to find the probability of getting, say, a King OR a red card, you have to know something more, namely that these two events are independent, so that the probability of A AND B is P(A) * P(B). But that's a different matter. Here is a related answer in our archives: Inclusive Probabilities http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56608.html I hope this helps! - Doctor Peterson, The Math Forum http://mathforum.org/dr.math/ |
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