Probability of Getting a JobDate: 7/10/96 at 18:52:11 From: Anonymous Subject: Probability with Different Events If a person is applying for five different jobs and has a ten percent chance of getting any one job, what is the probability of getting any job at all? I eliminated adding the probabilities, so I know my odds aren't 50 percent. Then I thought maybe the odds are only as good as your probability of getting the highest likelihood for a job, in this case 10 percent. But it seems as if there must be some benefit in applying for more jobs. Do you multiply the odds, i.e. .9*.9*.9*.9*.9 = 45 percent chance of not getting any job?. Date: 7/10/96 at 20:6:33 From: Doctor Anthony Subject: Re: Probability with Different Events Note that in the situation you describe you could end up with 0, 1, 2,...5 jobs, so giving 6 possible outcomes. If you wanted the probability of say 3 jobs you would use the binomial probability expression P(3) = 5C3*0.10^3*0.9^2 = .0081 {where 5C3 = 5*4*3/(1*2*3) = 10} However, the easiest way to tackle this type of probability is to consider that the probability of at least one job is 1 - prob.(no job) = 1 - 0.9^5 = 1 - 0.59 = 0.4095 -Doctor Anthony, The Math Forum Check out our web site! http://mathforum.org/dr.math/ |
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