Drunk Drivers and Traffic DeathsDate: 05/14/97 at 15:51:12 From: Anonymous Subject: Another Probability Question Dr. Math, Thank you so much for the help with my last question. Here is another I am stuck on: 1980 1989 Total Traffic Fatalities: 52,600 46,900 Number Involving Alchohol: 28,000 26,100 a) Estimate the probability that a traffic death may be attributed t a drunken driver. 50 percent b) If about 2 percent of drivers are legally drunk, about how many times more likely is it for a drunken driver to have an accident than a sober driver? I don't even know where to begin. Thank you again. Date: 05/14/97 at 19:22:10 From: Doctor Anthony Subject: Re: Another Probability Question We can make up a table as follows: | 1980 1989|Totals -------------------------------- Drunk | 28000 26100 | 54100 Sober | 24600 20800 | 45400 ---------------------------------- Totals | 52600 46900 | 99500 The probability of an accident being caused by a drunk driver = 54100/99500 = 0.5437 So we have 2 percent cause 54.37 percent of the accidents 98 percent cause 45.63 percent of the accidents So drunks are (98/2)(54.37/45.63) times as likely to cause an accident = 58.38 So a drunk driver is approximately 58 times as likely to cause an accident as a sober driver. -Doctor Anthony, The Math Forum Check out our web site! http://mathforum.org/dr.math/ |
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