Lottery Strategy and Odds of WinningDate: 04/27/2000 at 16:25:58 From: Martin Smith Subject: Odds of winning vs. Odds of Losing My friend maintains that my odds of winning in the UK National Lottery are the same whether I choose the same numbers each time or whether I choose different numbers. I maintain that my odds of losing are greater if I change my numbers than if I keep the same ones. The theory is: FACT: The odds of winning are approximately 13 million to one. So according to my friend: 1. No set of numbers is any more likely to win than any other. 2. The balls and machines have no memory, therefore each draw is a new one. 3. If you entered 13 million times you would win. BUT I maintain: 1. If you change your numbers you may have a winning set the week before that set wins. In other words, you could enter 13 million draws and get the next week's winning numbers every time and still lose every time. 2: If you enter 13 million times with the same numbers, you will win because your number is bound to turn up for one of them. I know this is not exactly the case as it is perfectly possible to have the same numbers more than once; however, I believe this will affect both scenarios in the same way. So who is correct? Date: 04/28/2000 at 15:59:30 From: Doctor TWE Subject: Re: Odds of winning Vs Odds of Losing Hi Martin - thanks for writing to Dr. Math. Assuming that we are talking about playing the numbers on different weeks (as opposed to buying multiple tickets for the same week), and assuming that the generating machine is fair, then your friend is right. No set of numbers is any more likely to win than any other. This is correct if the device is fair. In probability, we usually assume a fair random number generator, but in the "real world" this may not be the case. Sometimes machines are deliberately rigged; sometimes they just aren't perfectly designed. 2. The balls and machines have no memory, therefore each draw is a new one. This is absolutely correct. Each week's drawing is an independent event, not affected by past or future drawings. 3. If you entered 13 million times you would win. Not necessarily. On the _average_ you should win once in 13 million drawings, but they may repeat numbers that aren't yours and not pick yours. If it's a fair machine, in 13 million million drawings, you should win about 1 million times. This is like saying that if you roll a die 6 times, you'd get a 6 exactly once. This is not the case. On the average, 1/6 of the rolls will be 1's, 1/6 of the rolls will be 2's, etc., but we could get two 4's and no 6. Likewise, we could get three 6's but no 2's. In enough rolls, it will average out. Likewise, in enough lotteries (billions of them), it will average out. >1. If you change your numbers you may have a winning set the week before that set wins. In other words, you could enter 13 million draws and get the next weeks winning numbers every time and still lose every time. Say your number is 1-2-3-4-5. It is equally likely that every week, the winning combination will be 6-7-8-9-10. Each week you will miss it by "that much". >2. If you enter 13 million times with the same numbers, you will win because your number is bound to turn up for one of them. See what I said about your friend's point 3. Not every number will come up in those 13 million drawings. An important concept that you're missing is the idea of replacement. If, once drawn, the numbers are removed from the pool and cannot be picked ever again, then sooner or later you would win in 13 million drawings. If you stuck with the same number, sometime in those 13 million drawings your number would come up. If you changed numbers each week (we'll assume you only choose from those that haven't yet been picked), sooner or later you'll pick the winning one. If, by the 13 millionth drawing, you hadn't picked the winner yet, you'd know which one was left. This would be like guessing which card will be picked from a deck and placed on a table. Your chances are 1 in 52 when the first card is picked. Say that it's the 5 of clubs. If you're wrong, the card is placed on the table (NOT reshuffled into the deck) and you try to guess the next card. If you haven't guessed the card in the first 51 draws, you can figure out which card is left and guarantee that you'll "guess" right on the 52nd draw. But the lottery is not like that. Each time a combination is picked, it is "reshuffled" into the mix and can be picked again in any of the following weeks. The reason that we don't seem to "see" this is because of the small sample size relative to the pool of possible combinations. If we COULD play millions of millions of lotteries (we can simulate this with computers), we'd see repetitions, and we'd see that the odds of winning are the same for either strategy. I hope this helps. If you have any more questions, write back. - Doctor TWE, The Math Forum http://mathforum.org/dr.math/ |
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