Theoretical and Experimental Probability
Date: 05/07/2001 at 15:51:50 From: Laura Subject: Probability Hi. My question is: Michael is learning about probability. He spins a spinner 20 times and records the results. What might he conclude from his experiment? The spinner is divided into 4 sections: 2 blue,1 yellow, and 1 red. a) The theoretical probability of spinning red is one-half. b) The experimental probability of spinning blue is three-fifths. c) The experimental probability of spinning yellow is 100.001% d) The theoretical probability of spinning red if four-fifths. Supposedly the correct answer is B, but how?
Date: 05/08/2001 at 14:17:04 From: Doctor Twe Subject: Re: probability Hi Laura - thanks for writing to Dr. Math. We can't determine anything about "theoretical" probabilities by experimentation - that has to be done by analysis of the situation (in this case, geometric analysis of the spinner and relative sizes of the blue, yellow, and red sections). So choices (a) and (d) can be eliminated. One of the basic axioms of probability says that any probability has to be between 0 and 1 (0% and 100%) inclusive; it can never be less than 0 (0%) nor more than 1 (100%). So that eliminates choice (c). The only one left is (b). Presumably, in order to get that experimental probability Michael must have landed on blue (3/5)*20 = 12 times. I hope this helps. If you have any more questions, write back. - Doctor TWE, The Math Forum http://mathforum.org/dr.math/
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