Date: 03/14/97 at 19:47:23 From: Adam Hilton Subject: Estimating rat population Two rats, one male and one female, live on an island and mate on January 1. The number of young produced in every litter is 6, and 3 of those 6 are females. The original female gives birth to 6 young on Jan. 1, and produces another litter of six 40 days later and every 40 days thereafter as long as she lives. Each female born on the island will produce her first litter 120 days after her birth, and then produce a new litter every 40 days thereafter. The rats are on an island with no natural enemies and plenty of food. Therefore, in this first year, there are only births so no rats die. What will be the total number of rats by the next Januray 1, including the original pair? My mom and I tried to plot out the generations, using a calendar, labeling the generations alphabetically. We came up with 3,590. I have to do a report showing how I did this, start to finish, with graphs or anything else I used. The teacher doesn't really care if I get the answer right, she wants to see the math I have used. Thanks, Adam Hilton
Date: 03/14/97 at 23:13:30 From: Doctor Steven Subject: Re: Estimating rat population This is a problem in regression, which is a complicated way of saying that the number of rats at a point in time depends on the number of rats at a previous point in time. We start with 8 rats, so we'll call the number of rats at our first point in time N1. N1 = 8. (We have 8 because the first pair had a litter on Jan 1st.) Forty days later, we'll have another 6 rats. So N2 = 14. Forty days after this we'll have another 6 rats, so N3 = 20. Another forty days later, our first litter of rats will now be mature so they will be contributing to the rat population. Now for each PAIR of mature rats we add six, so for EACH rat we contribute only 3. This means that N4 = N3 + 6*N(4-3) (the number of rats in the previous time period plus 3 times the number of rats three time periods ago). In general, for a number greater than 4 (denoted by R), we have: NR = N(R-1) + 3*N(R-3). Now the problem is to find how many time periods we go through before the next Jan 1st. Well, there are 365 days in a year so we divide this by 40 to get the number of time periods we go through. So 365/40 = 9.125. We only want whole time periods so the last increase in rats before Jan 1st next year is the ninth increase, or the 10th point in time. So the problem is asking us to find N10: N1 = 8 N2 = 14 N3 = 20 N4 = N3 + 3*N1 = 20 + 3*8 = 20 + 24 = 44 N5 = N4 + 3*N2 = 44 + 3*14 = 44 + 42 = 86 . . . N10 = N9 + 3*N7 = .... The result for N10 is what your teacher wants. The first three N's (N1, N2, N3) are called the initial conditions, because they are not found using the formula given for N's greater than 3 (N4, N5, ...). Hope this helps. -Doctor Steven, The Math Forum Check out our web site! http://mathforum.org/dr.math/
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