The Legacy of the Reverend Bayes
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Keith Devlin (Devlin's Angle)  
How do you use inconclusive evidence to assess the probability that a certain event will occur? One method that has become increasingly popular in recent years depends on a mathematical theorem proved by an 18th Century English Presbyterian minister by the name of Thomas Bayes. What makes the relatively new technique of "Bayesian inference" particularly intriguing is that it uses an honesttogoodness mathematical formula (Bayes' Theorem) in order to improve  on the basis of evidence  the best (human) estimate that a particular event will take place. In the words of some statisticians, it's "mathematics on top of common sense."...  


Levels:  High School (912), College, Research 
Languages:  English 
Resource Types:  Articles 
Math Topics:  Probability, Statistics, Medicine/Health 
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