It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic-Programming Analysis of Football Strategy
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|David Romer, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley|
|PDF download of David Romer's working paper. Reviewing almost 20,000 first quarter plays of National Football League regular season games, Romer analyzed fourth down decision-making and the rarely-questioned consensus that it's better to punt than to "go for it" (go for a first down or touchdown). See also the press release by The University of California, Berkeley and coverage by ESPN, with coaches' reactions.|
|Levels:||Middle School (6-8), High School (9-12), College|
|Math Topics:||Dynamic Programming, Data Analysis, Statistics, Sports|
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