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Topic: Help with probability&stat problem
Replies: 47   Last Post: Jun 16, 2007 4:32 AM

 Messages: [ Previous | Next ]
 Luis A. Afonso Posts: 4,758 From: LIsbon (Portugal) Registered: 2/16/05
FALSIFICATION
Posted: Jun 13, 2007 12:19 PM

Follow-up, in SHORT, the continuity correction leads to better results:
______With C.C._____EXACT_______Without C.C.
______0.00144______0.00156________0.00212____
Diff___0.00012_____________________0.00056____

***************
See my post Jun 13, 2007, 7:29 AM. And APPRECIATE that Jack Tomsky DID FALSIFY my evaluation

I WROTE (ipsis verbis, please check):
Date: Jun 13, 2007 7:29 AM
Author: Luis A. Afonso
Subject: Re: Help with probability&stat problem

EXACT : p(X<=10) = 0.00156
Normal Approximation
*** Without C.C.
Z = (10 - 22)/sqrt(0.2*0.8*110) = -22/ 4.1952 = -2.8604.
________________ F(Z) = 0.00212
*** With C.C.
________Z = (10 - 22 + 0.5)/ 4.1952 = -2.9796
________________________ F(Z) = 0.00144
The differences approx-EXACT are respectively

_______Without = +0.00056
_______With C.C. = -0.00012.
********

Jack´s response:

The exact probablity calculated from the binomial distribution is 0.0015595. The Afonso normal approximation is 0.002115. The "improved" Afonso normal approximation with a correction factor is 0.003061, which is worse. Jack

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Licas

Date Subject Author
6/11/07 tutorny
6/11/07 briggs@encompasserve.org
6/11/07 tutorny
6/11/07 Randy Poe
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6/11/07 Bruce Weaver
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6/11/07 Bruce Weaver
6/11/07 C6L1V@shaw.ca
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6/13/07 Anon.
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