Date: Jul 16, 2012 1:06 PM
Author: Eric
Subject: Probability in the game Citadels

Hello my name is Eric and I hope this is the right place to post this. My friends and I love a game called Citadels and have recently had a heated debate about an element of probability in the game and I just wanted to make sure I'm right =P The issue is this: 

In Citadels there are 8 character cards, one of which is the King. At the beginning of each turn they are shuffled and two cards are put placed face up and one face down, the remaining 5 cards enter distribution to the players. If the king appears as a face up card then the process must be restarted and repeated until the King is not a face up card. The question is, what is the chance that the king will be the face down card? Is it 1 in 8 or 1 in 6? Or some other answer =/

Thanks to anyone who takes the time to answer our quandary