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Topic: (difficult)Theoretical gambling puzzle
Replies: 29   Last Post: Jul 31, 2006 5:54 AM

 Messages: [ Previous | Next ]
 Eric Bainville Posts: 10 Registered: 12/6/04
Re: (difficult)Theoretical gambling puzzle (solution?)
Posted: Jul 25, 2006 8:10 AM

Hi again!

I found an error in my previous algorithm.
I now get an expected gain of 4.716526...

But I still have a doubt about one thing:
suppose there are P red and N black cards remaining
in the deck, what is the probability of drawing a red one ?
Is it really P/(N+P) ??

-- Eric

At 03:00 25/07/2006, JoÃ£o Pedro Afonso wrote:
>Hi to all.
>
>Nigel wrote:

> > You have 52 playing cards (26 red, 26 black). You
> > draw cards one by one. A red card pays you a dollar.
> > A black one fines you a dollar. You can stop any time
> > you want. Cards are not returned to the deck after
> > being drawn. What is the optimal stopping rule in
> > terms of maximizing expected payoff? Also, what is
> > the expected payoff following this optimal rule?

>
> As I said in the previous post, I think I
> achieved the solution for this problem. This is
> a very interesting puzzle and I don't want to
> spoil the solution for anybody in case I'm
> right, so, for now, I'll only present the expected value for my strategy:
>
> E[v]= 1269479634238379/495918532948104 =
>
> ~ 2.55986...
>
> Can someone confirm this value or present a best one?
>
>
> Cheers,
>Joao Pedro Afonso

Date Subject Author
7/21/06 nigel
7/21/06 Mary Krimmel
7/21/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/21/06 Earle Jones
7/23/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/24/06 Earle Jones
7/24/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/23/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/24/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/25/06 Eric Bainville
7/25/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/25/06 Eric Bainville
7/25/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/26/06 Eric Bainville
7/26/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/26/06 Eric Bainville
7/25/06 Eric Bainville
7/25/06 cuthbert
7/25/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/26/06 cuthbert
7/26/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/31/06 cuthbert1
7/25/06 Eamon
7/25/06 Eamon
7/28/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/28/06 mark
7/28/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/28/06 mark
7/28/06 João Pedro Afonso
7/28/06 mark