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Re: (difficult)Theoretical gambling puzzle (solution?)
Posted:
Jul 25, 2006 8:10 AM
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Hi again!
I found an error in my previous algorithm.
I now get an expected gain of 4.716526...
But I still have a doubt about one thing:
suppose there are P red and N black cards remaining
in the deck, what is the probability of drawing a red one ?
Is it really P/(N+P) ??
-- Eric
At 03:00 25/07/2006, João Pedro Afonso wrote:
>Hi to all.
>
>Nigel wrote:
> > You have 52 playing cards (26 red, 26 black). You
> > draw cards one by one. A red card pays you a dollar.
> > A black one fines you a dollar. You can stop any time
> > you want. Cards are not returned to the deck after
> > being drawn. What is the optimal stopping rule in
> > terms of maximizing expected payoff? Also, what is
> > the expected payoff following this optimal rule?
>
> As I said in the previous post, I think I
> achieved the solution for this problem. This is
> a very interesting puzzle and I don't want to
> spoil the solution for anybody in case I'm
> right, so, for now, I'll only present the expected value for my strategy:
>
> E[v]= 1269479634238379/495918532948104 =
>
> ~ 2.55986...
>
> Can someone confirm this value or present a best one?
>
>
> Cheers,
>Joao Pedro Afonso
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