On Feb 28, 2:38 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote: ... > If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since > it has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the > fireballs are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered > last year in February also during a close approach. > ...
On Mar 5, 11:31 am, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote: > Speculation here that such an impact could make Mars habitable: > > Rush to Mars: Comet impact could make Red Planet inhabitable. > Published time: February 28, 2013 16:32 > http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/ > > Bob Clark
Assuming comet C/2013 A1 misses Mars by 37,000 km how much delta-v would you need to nudge it to hit Mars?
This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of millions.
This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.
For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this. So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year. Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.
Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods begin piling up greater and greater.
Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may be upcoming.
It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.