In the US presidential election, the winner is determined by electoral vote rather than by popular vote. What is the chance that the two will give different outcomes in an otherwise close race?
Make simplifying assumptions, such as an odd number of equi-populous states. In a two-candidate race, voters everywhere vote randomly for one of the two candidates. Every state has the same (odd) number of voters, and the same number of electors -- the winning candidate within each state gets all of that state's electors. What is the probability that the candidate winning a majority of the overall vote will lose in a majority of the states? -- E = m c^2. Einstein = Man of the Century. Why the squaring?
Peter-Lawrence.Montgomery@cwi.nl Home: San Rafael, California Microsoft Research and CWI